Comparison of S&P Global and Moody’s Q3 2025 Results
Both franchises produced double-digit EPS growth with clean execution; SPGI adds a clearer private-markets growth vector and raised FY guide this quarter, while MCO sustained a high-quality, recurring Analytics mix with strengthened outlook.
S&P Global (SPGI) delivered Q3 revenue of $3.888B (+9% y/y), GAAP EPS $3.86 (+24%) and adjusted EPS $4.73 (+22%); a record quarter that prompted a FY25 outlook raise (total revenue +7–8%, adj. margin ~50–50.5%).
Moody’s (MCO) posted roughly $2.0B (+11%) revenue, GAAP EPS $3.60 (+23%) and adjusted EPS $3.92 (+22%), also lifting full-year guidance. Both companies are riding the same macro tailwinds: robust refinancing, tight spreads and strong structured issuance.
What powered the quarter.
At S&P, Ratings revenue rose double-digits (transaction + non-transaction), Market Intelligence (MI) accelerated to ~8% organic cc growth, and Indices benefited from equity AUM inflows; enterprise adjusted margin expanded meaningfully. Management highlighted record RES activity, a healthy 2026–2028 maturity wall, and reiterated Q4 billed-issuance growth in the mid- to high-teens.
Moody’s growth mix skewed to Moody’s Analytics (recurring subscriptions) with a continued rebound in Ratings; company commentary pointed to private credit (CLOs, data-center securitizations) and leveraged-loan refinancing as incremental supports.
Portfolio moves signal SPGI’s sharpening focus.
S&P closed the OSTTRA sale, announced divestitures of EDM and thinkFolio from MI, kept the Mobility spin on track, and unveiled a $1.8B agreement to acquire With Intelligence (W&I) a scarce, contributory dataset spanning LPs, GPs, funds, deals and allocation flows. Management will fund W&I with ~$1B debt plus cash; closing is targeted for late-2025/early-2026. Net, SPGI is pruning lower-synergy software while doubling down on proprietary benchmarks, ratings content and private-markets intelligence to drive growth and defensibility.
Strategic framing: “map vs. ledger.”
S&P is buying the map—the relationships and flows of private capital (W&I + Cambridge/Mercer partnerships + iLEVEL data exhaust). Moody’s already holds the ledger—deep entity fundamentals via Orbis and analytics/KYC stacks.
The battleground is private-credit normalization: investors and regulators want standardized transparency across borrowers and allocators. S&P disclosed that only ~12% of MI revenue comes from undifferentiated/public data, underscoring moat strength from proprietary content and embedded workflow (Capital IQ Pro, iLEVEL, WSO).
Moody’s counters with high-recurring Analytics, agency-style “agentic AI” delivery, and a ratings flywheel that compounds as issuance rebounds. Expect continued co-opetition—and increasing odds that one or both data models become codified in supervisory workflows.
For 2026, watch:
- Issuance durability: 2025’s issuance boom was exceptional. 2026 should stay healthy—above long-term trend but below this year’s surge keeping both S&P and Moody’s on a solid earnings trajectory, though momentum shifts from cyclical issuance gains to structural data and AI-driven revenue streams.
- W&I integration/monetization pace vs. MI pruning benefits,
- Moody’s AI/analytics upsell momentum, and
- any regulatory moves that formalize data standards in private credit.
Intrepid Explorers, LLC research: Sources: Earnings Releases and Transcripts